Data from World Bank (www.worldbank.org) reports that ownership of mobile phones in the Philippines breached the 100% mark in 2012.  During that year, practically all Filipinos have a mobile phone; in fact, the penetration was reported to be 105.45%, indicating that on average, Filipinos have 1.05 mobile phones on their hands.

The latest reported figure in the World Bank data set is 118.23% penetration for the year 2015: On average, Filipinos have 1.18 mobile handsets available to them when they want to call, SMS, and perhaps, access the Internet.

Recently, I was asked by a colleague to update the figures for 2017.  In addition, she asked me if there was a “ceiling” to mobile phone ownership in the Philippines.  Specifically, she asked me if it is reasonable to say that in the near term (or long-term), Filipinos will have at least 2 mobile handsets per person.

I did some calculations and the chart below is my visualization of the potential evolution of mobile handset ownership in the Philippines.

My calculations indicate that as of 2017, mobile phone penetration stands at 124.2%.  Which is probably reasonable: The influx of cheap smart- and feature-phones from China has been noticeable in the country in the last 18 months. The continued popularity of pre-paid SIM cards from the two leading mobile service providers, Globe Telecom and PLDT/Smart, also are contributing to this growth.

With regard to a limit, my model suggests that there is indeed a ceiling: On average, we can expect the penetration of mobile phones to peak at 141%. This indicates that no, we are not going to see a 2-mobile-unit-per-person scenario in the Philippines. Rather, the max that we will get to is an average of 1.4 handsets per person.

What could be contributing to this braking mechanism? I can think of two things: Double-SIM handsets — mobile phones where one can have two different SIM cards — and high inter-operator call/SMS charges.

Since mobile operators charge more when one SMS or calls from outside the network (e.g., Globe to Smart, Smart to Globe), Filipinos find it more prudent to have two SIM cards to get in touch with friends and family who are not on the same network as they are.

So… there.

🙂